NL East Prediction

So over the next few days, I'll post my prediction for the 2009 MLB season, division-by-division. Today, I'll start with the NL East.

1st: Phillies (88-74)
2nd: Mets (85-77)
3rd: Braves (84-78)
4th: Marlins (79-83)
5th: Nationals (65-97)

I don't really like the Phillies' signing of Raul Ibanez, especially when a younger, better, right-handed Pat Burrell signed for cheaper and for fewer years. Nevertheless, most of last year's World Series winning team is back and their holes are relatively minor and could be resolved through trades or internally (starting pitching depth [right now the Phillies are banking on three tentative things: Cole Hamels' health, Brett Myers' consistency and 46-year-old Jamie Moyer's effectiveness], a left-handed reliever for the first 50 games [until J.C. Romero returns from suspension] and a right-handed bench bat).

The Mets' offseason reminds me of that scene from Vegas Vacation where Chevy Chase creates a hole in the Hoover Dam and tries to plug it with a stick of gum only to find more and more holes created. They did a great job revitalizing their bullpen by acquiring Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz but there are enough other holes on this team to prevent them for winning the division. Last year, the Mets relied on the likes of Carlos Delgado, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy to keep them afloat. They can't do that again. Their offense is rather weak outside of their three fantastic hitters--David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Their rotation also drops off significantly after Johan Santana. I expect one of the two between John Maine and Mike Pelfrey to have a healthy, productive season but any time Livan Hernandez is in a starting rotation, there is a major, major problem.

Atlanta had a strange few months with their franchise player (John Smoltz) wearing something other than a Braves uniform for the first time since 1988. Additionally, the Braves had a lot of drama surronding their near-miss free agent signings of Rafael Furcal and Ken Griffey Jr. and also nearly missed out on A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy. However, they still did a great job re-tooling their rotation by acquiring three decent starters in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami. Their offense should be respectable and if they get improvement from Casey Kotchman and a rebound from Jeff Francoeur the Braves could be a scary team.

The Marlins took me by surprise last year by finishing above .500 and very well could do so again. Their young rotation of Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez could end up being the best in the National League. I am concerned that they gave up too many unspectatular but useful players in the offseason in Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg and Joe Nelson. They will need youngsters and rookies to fill these roles and if they are unable to do so and if there is expected inconsistency out of the young pitching, more names may be added to the 'give up' list come July 31st.

I don't really understand the Nationals' signing of Adam Dunn especially with a rotation that is in shambles and for a team whose one surplus is in first base/outfield type players (Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes, Wily Mo Pena and Lastings Milledge). I guess the Lerners really need to placate fans after losing out on Mark Teixiera. I don't really see much to like about this team. They have one major league quality pitcher in John Lannan (maybe two if Jordan Zimmermann's spring isn't a fluke) and about the only thing fans have to get excited is the June draft where the Nationals will probably draft uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg (now that Jim Bowden is no longer around to say no).

Up Next: NL Central