NL Central Prediction

1st: Cubs (93-69)
2nd: Cardinals (88-74)
3rd: Reds (82-80)
4th: Brewers (82-80)
5th: Astros (74-88)
6th: Pirates (71-91)

There shouldn't be much in the way of the Cubs and another division title this year. The team will miss Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa but they may have been wise not to pay Kerry Wood the $10MM+ a year Cleveland is. Even if Milton Bradley can only play 100 games for the Cubs and Rich Harden only makes 20 starts, the Cubs should be OK. The Cubs' top 4 pitchers of Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly will probably regress a bit from last season but if they can swing a deal for the Padres' Jake Peavy that rotation could be among the best in baseball history.

The Cardinals really surprised me last year by staying in contention all season and I think they should do again with a healthy Chris Carpenter (who is having a very good spring training) and a healthy Adam Wainwright. Their infield defense will be a problem however with Khalil Greene coming over from San Diego to play shortstop and outfielder Skip Schumaker moving to second base. I think their offense led by Albert Pujols and backed up by Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel should be enough to vault the Cardinals to a wild card and a return to the playoffs.

The Reds are one of those teams that I think will break out every year, so I will keep with tradition and say they break out again. Big gains from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto should offset the mid-season loss of Adam Dunn and team with Edwin Encarncion and Brandon Phillips to make a respectable offense. The team discovered an ace last year in Edinson Volquez and improvement from Johnny Cueto and a bounce-back from Aaron Harang should bring the Reds back to respectability and allow them to make a run for the playoffs in 2010 with some savvy acquistions.

It is impossible to replace CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets at the top of any rotation and a full season of Yovani Gallardo and a free agent signing of Braden Looper won't be able to do it, although they should be respectable. The Brewers' potent offense led by Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun and Corey hart is back this year though a midseason trade could ship someone like Fielder out of a top-of-the line pitcher. There is also the possibility that the the Brewers could sign Ben Sheets when he comes back from injury around August and he could be impetus to lead the Brewers down the stretch.

The Astros really surprised me when they made a late playoff push at the end of last season, but I think that was just a fluke. They have three really good players in Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and Carlos Lee (who was injured during the Astros' playoff push last year) but after that there's not much about which to get excited. There isn't really any pitching depth behind Oswalt and their offense has several holes. They sold the farm last offseason to acquire Miguel Tejada from the Orioles and he aged two years before he even had an at-bat and he is clearly on the decline. It may be time for the Astros to sell off their talent now and start re-building.

Once again, "Pittsburgh Baseball" is just another meaningless phrase. When you finish last in your division and your key off-season acquisition is Ramon Vazquez, another last place finish is pretty much inevitable. THe Pirates do have some talent deep in their minor leagues but that won't help for 2009. It'll be a successful season for the Bucs ifPaul Maholm continues to pitch well and if the likes of Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Andy LaRoche prove that they are major league material.